Recent Commentary
The Realities of the Trade War With China – and What to do With Trade Sensitive Stocks
Investors are happy with year-to-date returns (the S&P 500 is up 12%), but the market is actually trading at the same level it was 16 months ago. We’ve had big up and down moves, but in the end, we have been trendless. We think valuations have a lot to do with...
The Bull Market Powers Higher
As we expected, many companies (about 67%) are beating the bottom line consensus estimates for Q1. The earnings bar was set low by both the companies and analysts coming into earnings season making the forecasts easier to beat. And the prior periods of weak guidance...
The Fourth Industrial Revolution
What a difference a quarter can make. Last week Fed Chairman Powell all but admitted that he and the Fed were wrong raising the Fed funds rate in December and all but called off interest rate increases in 2019. They expect one increase in 2020. The initial market...
New Sector Leadership
The stock market continues its amazing run from the December 24th low and is now up about 18% since then. The percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 that are trading above their 50-day moving averages crossed above 90% for the first time in nearly three years. A...
Can 2019 Earnings Drive Stock Prices Higher?
My business partner and co-author of these commentaries, Steve Riley, has decided to leave Clearview to pursue other interests. His many contributions will be missed. This week marks the anniversary of the January, 2018 fevered peak in stocks. Since then stocks are...
2019: Money in Motion
Fourth Quarter Recap: What a difference a quarter can make. The S&P 500 was up 9% through September but then declined 14% in Q4 to end (6.2)% for the year. Many other U.S. stock market measures were down more. And volatility raged throughout the quarter....
Technical Analysis of the Stock Market
One of the main reasons for the recent October/November correction in stock prices is the escalating trade war between China and the U.S. So investors cheered when progress was made last Saturday night at the G20 Summit in Argentina between President Trump and Chinese...
Red October
Q & A It seems timely this is the month for our annual Q&A. Here are the most frequently asked questions by clients and other professionals: What is causing the current stock market correction? Concerns seem to be piling on making this a deep pull back....
Many Signs of Improving Stock Market Breadth: The Bull Market Continues
Capital Alpha Partners is a well-respected investment research firm that advises investors on how politics will affect their portfolios. Their insights can be valuable when reviewing investment strategy both before and after key elections. Their expert opinion places...
The Dwindling Supply of Stocks and Why It’s Profitable for Your Portfolio
The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high last Friday. The new high does not come with the euphoria we saw in January. For example, the Investor’s Intelligence survey is reporting a 3:1 bull-bear spread, far short of the 5:1 bull-bear spread in January. The AAII...