Recent Commentary

Fools Rush In? Or A Market Bottom?

  FOOLS RUSH IN?  OR A MARKET BOTTOM? There is no way to know yet if the recent rally in stocks marks a turning point for the market.  Was it “smart money” buying or a “fools rush in” kind of rally?  We will not let a market bounce blind us to the underlying...

read more

April 2022 Market Commentary

Despite year-to-date losses for stocks, the estimated earnings of the S&P 500 companies for the next 12 months have continued to climb as shown below:   NO LETUP IN FORWARD EPS ESTIMATES Source:  Bespoke Investment Group This divergence between the trend in forward...

read more

March 2022 Market Commentary

  Even though the market rebound last week was coincident with the Russian invasion (possibly signaling the bad news was fully discounted), we don’t think the coast is clear, and more volatility may be with us in the short term. Investors have at least three major...

read more

Late January Rally Eases Slide

  We are almost halfway through earnings season.  Earnings announcements are always important but maybe more so this quarter due to investors’ eagerness to see how inflation, including wage growth, is affecting companies’ bottom lines and outlooks for 2022.    So far,...

read more

January 2022 Market Commentary

  There were a record number of new issues in 2021, but only 22% of IPOs were profitable. Yet people still pour money into them.  Investors hope to find the next Apple, Microsoft, or Tesla, but the odds are stacked against them.  Especially since few investors can buy...

read more

December 2021 Market Commentary

It is still very early to say much definitive about the Omicron variant of COVID. We do know that it has spread beyond the origin, it has a significant number of mutations on the spike protein of the virus, and has relatively high transmissibility.  Testing by vaccine...

read more

Our Annual Q & A

Q.  If the government shuts down on October 1st, are stocks in for a rough patch? Goldman Sachs recently concluded that U.S. government shutdowns generally have not meaningfully impacted equity returns. In the 14 government shutdowns since 1980, the S&P 500 posted...

read more

Archives