Recent Commentary

China may be our biggest adversary, but the health of their economy and markets are important to the U.S. They are a major trading partner and their markets contribute to overall global stability. Chinese policymakers are finally alarmed enough to shift out of low...

August was a roller coaster for stocks. Moves lower in a roller coaster market can be terrifying, and in the first three trading days of August, investors had to contend with economic data showing what looked like a sharply decelerating economy and the unwind of the...

Just when it seemed mega-caps may never go down and small-caps may never go up again, we have seen a short-term reversal of epic proportions. The tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 is down about 8% while the small-cap Russell 2000 is up almost 10% over the last 13 trading days. ...

This week marks the beginning of earnings season for the second quarter.   S&P 500 companies are expected to report a fourth straight quarter of growth, with profits forecast to rise 8.8% over last year’s second quarter (source:  FactSet). The top 10 companies in the...

In the week leading up to Memorial Day weekend, the S&P 500 traded higher 23 out of the prior 30 weeks. There have only been a handful of other periods since WWII where the index had as many positive weeks in a 30-week span. Is the market exhausted after this run, or...

Early in April, higher interest rates drove share prices roughly 5% lower up until the 2.8% gain in the S&P 500 last week. Yields were not the driver last week.  Instead, it is another narrative, specifically artificial intelligence, that pushed the market higher in...

With Q1 2024 now complete, the S&P 500 index posted a return of 10.2%. That was good enough to beat the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 and the blue-chip Dow Jones 30 on the large-cap front.  It also beat both small-caps and mid-caps. It is remarkable that we haven’t seen a...

The main section in last month’s February commentary was titled “The Tech Bull Market Rolls On.”   Tech stocks continue to lead the charge and exploded to the upside after NVIDIA reported stellar results last week.  AI continues to be the driving theme in the stock...

The Q4 earnings season is about halfway over and it has been mixed at best, in our view. Companies are beating EPS estimates at a normal clip, but revenue growth has been disappointing.  This can lead to both lower profit margins and slower earnings growth ahead. ...

  TURN THE PAGE:  HELLO 2024!   We will start with an executive summary of economic and market factors we think are important as we gauge the chances for another good year in stocks in 2024: DOMINANT THEMES:  Inflation, the Fed, and artificial intelligence (AI) were...