Recent Commentary

Our Annual Q And A

Q.  Will the impeachment inquiry (and possible impeachment) of President Trump put a lid on stock prices, or cause share prices to fall? A.  The impact of impeachment on the markets is not clear.  From the beginning of Richard Nixon's impeachment inquiry to his...

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The Bond Market Takes Center Stage

  Is the growing “consensus” that’s calling for recession correct?  Not in our view.  The leading/coincident indicator ratio tends to plunge consistently for long periods of time in the lead-up to recessions, unlike the three instances of sideways movement we have...

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Why Investors Should Care About Rate Cuts

To date, about one-half of companies in the S&P 500 have reported Q2 earnings.  Seventy-seven percent of companies have reported a positive EPS surprise, a very strong showing.  The overall earnings decline is expected to be 2.6% for the quarter.  For CY 2019,...

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P/E Ratios and Bull Markets

The current economic expansion is celebrating its 10th birthday this month — the longest on record.  What accounts for its longevity?  In our view, the lack of an economic boom.  No boom, no bust.  The next recession may be the most widely anticipated of all time. ...

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The Bull Market Powers Higher

As we expected, many companies (about 67%) are beating the bottom line consensus estimates for Q1. The earnings bar was set low by both the companies and analysts coming into earnings season making the forecasts easier to beat. And the prior periods of weak guidance...

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The Fourth Industrial Revolution

The Fourth Industrial Revolution

What a difference a quarter can make. Last week Fed Chairman Powell all but admitted that he and the Fed were wrong raising the Fed funds rate in December and all but called off interest rate increases in 2019. They expect one increase in 2020. The initial market...

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New Sector Leadership

The stock market continues its amazing run from the December 24th low and is now up about 18% since then. The percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 that are trading above their 50-day moving averages crossed above 90% for the first time in nearly three years. A breadth...

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Can 2019 Earnings Drive Stock Prices Higher?

Can 2019 Earnings Drive Stock Prices Higher?

My business partner and co-author of these commentaries, Steve Riley, has decided to leave Clearview to pursue other interests.  His many contributions will be missed. This week marks the anniversary of the January, 2018 fevered peak in stocks. Since then stocks are...

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2019:  Money in Motion

2019: Money in Motion

Fourth Quarter Recap:  What a difference a quarter can make. The S&P 500 was up 9% through September but then declined 14% in Q4 to end (6.2)% for the year. Many other U.S. stock market measures were down more. And volatility raged throughout the quarter. According to...

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