Recent Commentary

The Massive Melt-Up Rally

Once again, investor sentiment proved to be a good contrary indicator.  At the depths of the market crash (late March), sentiment was overwhelmingly bearish.  Since then, the market has had an amazing run (see main section).  As people turned more positive on stocks,...

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The Federal Reserve Versus Valuations

“Unprecedented” feels like an overused word these days, but it is no overstatement when it comes to the oil market.  In the March mid-month commentary, we wrote that the oil supply glut could throw another gut punch to our economy on top of the coronavirus.  Our worst...

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Markets Driven By Fear

  Equities are trying to find a floor even though the news flow on the spread of the coronavirus outside of China hasn’t shown any signs of improvement.  A number of market indicators would suggest forward returns from current oversold levels should be pretty good,...

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Our 2020 Playbook

  Last week investors were reminded of risk – geopolitical risk to be specific.  Stocks quickly sold off after tension between the U.S. and Iran escalated.  But we don’t remember when there wasn’t ‘tension’ in the Mideast.  Individual risks such as this tend not to be...

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The Bond Market Takes Center Stage

Barron’s recent fall 2019 Big Money Poll reported that only 27% of money managers are bullish on the stock market for the next 12 months, down from 46% in the spring survey and 56% a year ago.  The latest reading is the lowest percentage of bulls in over 20 years. A...

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Our Annual Q And A

Q.  Will the impeachment inquiry (and possible impeachment) of President Trump put a lid on stock prices, or cause share prices to fall? A.  The impact of impeachment on the markets is not clear.  From the beginning of Richard Nixon's impeachment inquiry to his...

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