Recent Commentary

The Market Is Exuberant, But Is It A Bubble?

S&P 500 performance this year has been dominated by the index’s largest components, and the disparity by cap size is great. So far this year, the 50 largest stocks in the S&P 500 are up an average 11.3% YTD through August 28th.  The 50 smallest stocks are down an...

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What’s In Store For Act IV

The five largest stocks in the S&P 500 (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Facebook) have collectively added $1.66 trillion in market cap this year.  The other 495 stocks in the index have lost $1.61 trillion in market cap!  The average share price increase for...

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The Massive Melt-Up Rally

Once again, investor sentiment proved to be a good contrary indicator.  At the depths of the market crash (late March), sentiment was overwhelmingly bearish.  Since then, the market has had an amazing run (see main section).  As people turned more positive on stocks,...

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The Federal Reserve Versus Valuations

“Unprecedented” feels like an overused word these days, but it is no overstatement when it comes to the oil market.  In the March mid-month commentary, we wrote that the oil supply glut could throw another gut punch to our economy on top of the coronavirus.  Our worst...

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Markets Driven By Fear

  Equities are trying to find a floor even though the news flow on the spread of the coronavirus outside of China hasn’t shown any signs of improvement.  A number of market indicators would suggest forward returns from current oversold levels should be pretty good,...

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Our 2020 Playbook

  Last week investors were reminded of risk – geopolitical risk to be specific.  Stocks quickly sold off after tension between the U.S. and Iran escalated.  But we don’t remember when there wasn’t ‘tension’ in the Mideast.  Individual risks such as this tend not to be...

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