Recent Commentary

This week marks the beginning of earnings season for the second quarter.   S&P 500 companies are expected to report a fourth straight quarter of growth, with profits forecast to rise 8.8% over last year’s second quarter (source:  FactSet). The top 10 companies in the...

In the week leading up to Memorial Day weekend, the S&P 500 traded higher 23 out of the prior 30 weeks. There have only been a handful of other periods since WWII where the index had as many positive weeks in a 30-week span. Is the market exhausted after this run, or...

Early in April, higher interest rates drove share prices roughly 5% lower up until the 2.8% gain in the S&P 500 last week. Yields were not the driver last week.  Instead, it is another narrative, specifically artificial intelligence, that pushed the market higher in...

With Q1 2024 now complete, the S&P 500 index posted a return of 10.2%. That was good enough to beat the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 and the blue-chip Dow Jones 30 on the large-cap front.  It also beat both small-caps and mid-caps. It is remarkable that we haven’t seen a...

The main section in last month’s February commentary was titled “The Tech Bull Market Rolls On.”   Tech stocks continue to lead the charge and exploded to the upside after NVIDIA reported stellar results last week.  AI continues to be the driving theme in the stock...

The Q4 earnings season is about halfway over and it has been mixed at best, in our view. Companies are beating EPS estimates at a normal clip, but revenue growth has been disappointing.  This can lead to both lower profit margins and slower earnings growth ahead. ...

  TURN THE PAGE:  HELLO 2024!   We will start with an executive summary of economic and market factors we think are important as we gauge the chances for another good year in stocks in 2024: DOMINANT THEMES:  Inflation, the Fed, and artificial intelligence (AI) were...

  During this holiday season, we want to thank you for your friendship and trust in us.  Our best wishes to you for a Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah!   We follow the U.S. housing market closely because housing is such a significant part of our economy. The big...

October was the third straight lousy month for stocks with the S&P 500 down about 3% through yesterday.  Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ entered correction territory late last week.  Small caps (Russell 2000) are down about 18% from their high in July and down 32% from...

We may be in a bull market, but outside of the mega-caps in the S&P 500, it has been a flat year for the stock market. The S&P 500 is up a rosy 11.7% through September, but the median S&P 500 stock is up just 0.4% YTD.  And the broader market is up less than 2% YTD. ...