Recent Commentary

Our Annual Q & A

Q.  If the government shuts down on October 1st, are stocks in for a rough patch? Goldman Sachs recently concluded that U.S. government shutdowns generally have not meaningfully impacted equity returns. In the 14 government shutdowns since 1980, the S&P 500 posted...

read more

Day Trading Versus Buy and Hold

This quarter's corporate earnings reports have been stellar. With about 40% of S&P 500 companies having now reported, 91% beat analyst expectations, the highest level on record according to Refinitiv.  But that doesn't mean their stock prices rose as a result.  In...

read more

Another Crash In Bitcoin

The booming economy will be a tailwind for corporate revenue while much of the pandemic-era cost cutting remains in place, boosting profit margins.  In fact, the S&P 500 components’ forward net profit margins stand at a record-high 12.8%, according to Yardeni...

read more

Big Money Poll Of Professional Investors

Since the start of April, 87% of reporting companies have topped EPS forecasts, 75% have exceeded sales forecasts, 16% have raised guidance, and just 2% have lowered forecasts.  Overall, S&P 500 earnings growth is currently on pace to total 44% in the first quarter,...

read more

Blast Off For The U.S. Economy

The pandemic closed casino doors and opened up a much more addictive and accessible form of gambling:  online day trading.  It is the new drug of choice for generations Y and Z.  With zero commissions and easy access to leverage, those young adults are at risk of...

read more

The Folly Of Forecasting

Last year’s zeal for risky investments was epitomized by the run-up in cryptocurrencies.  For example, bitcoin quadrupled in value.  The surge in bitcoin was driven by individual and institutional investors alike, many wading into the market for the first time. Over...

read more

Archives