Recent Commentary

September 2022 Market Commentary

In the second quarter, the decline in residential investment subtracted 0.7% from real GDP growth. The third quarter has started on a sour note:  July housing starts dropped nearly 20% from their cyclical peak in April. Home builder sentiment for August plunged to its...

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August 2022 Market Commentary

More often than not, when the analysts expectations bar is set low for earnings season (like now), the S&P 500 rallies. Conversely, when the bar is set high heading into earnings season, the markets performance has been uneven. Coming into this earnings season,...

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July 2022 Market Commentary

Let’s start Q3 on a positive note.  If there has ever been a time that the market was “due” to rally, it is in the months ahead.  Historical gains are impressive after a two-quarter 20% drop like we just experienced.  Following a correction like this, the market has...

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June 2022 Market Commentary

  FOOLS RUSH IN?  OR A MARKET BOTTOM? There is no way to know yet if the recent rally in stocks marks a turning point for the market.  Was it “smart money” buying or a “fools rush in” kind of rally?  We will not let a market bounce blind us to the underlying...

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May 2022 Market Commentary

The stock market is off to an awful start this year.  With a YTD decline of over 13% through April, the S&P 500 is off to its third worst start since WWII, and the NASDAQ has never had a weaker start over four months.  So one would expect investor sentiment to be...

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April 2022 Market Commentary

Despite year-to-date losses for stocks, the estimated earnings of the S&P 500 companies for the next 12 months have continued to climb as shown below:   NO LETUP IN FORWARD EPS ESTIMATES Source:  Bespoke Investment Group This divergence between the trend in forward...

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March 2022 Market Commentary

  Even though the market rebound last week was coincident with the Russian invasion (possibly signaling the bad news was fully discounted), we don’t think the coast is clear, and more volatility may be with us in the short term. Investors have at least three major...

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February 2022 Market Commentary

  We are almost halfway through earnings season.  Earnings announcements are always important but maybe more so this quarter due to investors’ eagerness to see how inflation, including wage growth, is affecting companies’ bottom lines and outlooks for 2022.    So far,...

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January 2022 Market Commentary

  There were a record number of new issues in 2021, but only 22% of IPOs were profitable. Yet people still pour money into them.  Investors hope to find the next Apple, Microsoft, or Tesla, but the odds are stacked against them.  Especially since few investors can buy...

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December 2021 Market Commentary

It is still very early to say much definitive about the Omicron variant of COVID. We do know that it has spread beyond the origin, it has a significant number of mutations on the spike protein of the virus, and has relatively high transmissibility.  Testing by vaccine...

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