A Higher P/E Ratio Results In A Great Year For Stocks This year’s 25%+ YTD advance in the S&P 500 stock index is a very pleasant surprise to most investors. What accounts for the great year in stocks? About 20% appreciation came from multiple expansion (a...
Barron’s recent fall 2019 Big Money Poll reported that only 27% of money managers are bullish on the stock market for the next 12 months, down from 46% in the spring survey and 56% a year ago. The latest reading is the lowest percentage of bulls in over 20 years. A...
Q. Will the impeachment inquiry (and possible impeachment) of President Trump put a lid on stock prices, or cause share prices to fall? A. The impact of impeachment on the markets is not clear. From the beginning of Richard Nixon’s impeachment inquiry to his...
Is the growing “consensus” that’s calling for recession correct? Not in our view. The leading/coincident indicator ratio tends to plunge consistently for long periods of time in the lead-up to recessions, unlike the three instances of sideways movement we have...
To date, about one-half of companies in the S&P 500 have reported Q2 earnings. Seventy-seven percent of companies have reported a positive EPS surprise, a very strong showing. The overall earnings decline is expected to be 2.6% for the quarter. For CY 2019,...
The current economic expansion is celebrating its 10th birthday this month — the longest on record. What accounts for its longevity? In our view, the lack of an economic boom. No boom, no bust. The next recession may be the most widely anticipated of all time. ...
