In the second quarter, the decline in residential investment subtracted 0.7% from real GDP growth. The third quarter has started on a sour note: July housing starts dropped nearly 20% from their cyclical peak in April. Home builder sentiment for August plunged to its...
More often than not, when the analysts expectations bar is set low for earnings season (like now), the S&P 500 rallies. Conversely, when the bar is set high heading into earnings season, the markets performance has been uneven. Coming into this earnings season,...
Let’s start Q3 on a positive note. If there has ever been a time that the market was “due” to rally, it is in the months ahead. Historical gains are impressive after a two-quarter 20% drop like we just experienced. Following a correction like this, the market has...
FOOLS RUSH IN? OR A MARKET BOTTOM? There is no way to know yet if the recent rally in stocks marks a turning point for the market. Was it “smart money” buying or a “fools rush in” kind of rally? We will not let a market bounce blind us to the underlying...
The stock market is off to an awful start this year. With a YTD decline of over 13% through April, the S&P 500 is off to its third worst start since WWII, and the NASDAQ has never had a weaker start over four months. So one would expect investor sentiment to be...
Despite year-to-date losses for stocks, the estimated earnings of the S&P 500 companies for the next 12 months have continued to climb as shown below: NO LETUP IN FORWARD EPS ESTIMATES Source: Bespoke Investment Group This divergence between the trend in...
