In the second quarter, the decline in residential investment subtracted 0.7% from real GDP growth. The third quarter has started on a sour note: July housing starts dropped nearly 20% from their cyclical peak in April. Home builder sentiment for August plunged to its...
More often than not, when the analysts expectations bar is set low for earnings season (like now), the S&P 500 rallies. Conversely, when the bar is set high heading into earnings season, the markets performance has been uneven. Coming into this earnings season,...
The S&P 500 is up 17% since June 16th, yet market fundamentals seem to be deteriorating. Profit margins are falling, consumer price inflation is still high at 8.5% year-over-year, higher interest rates are slowing down many sectors of the economy (especially...
Higher interest rates are not only hitting stock and bond markets, they are also hurting the housing market. Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates are off the recent high of six percent, but mortgage applications are plunging, consistent with an outright collapse in sales...
Let’s start Q3 on a positive note. If there has ever been a time that the market was “due” to rally, it is in the months ahead. Historical gains are impressive after a two-quarter 20% drop like we just experienced. Following a correction like this, the market has...
