The current economic expansion is celebrating its 10th birthday this month — the longest on record. What accounts for its longevity? In our view, the lack of an economic boom. No boom, no bust. The next recession may be the most widely anticipated of all time. ...
Going into yesterday’s Federal Reserve Board meeting, the futures market was pricing in an 85% chance that the Fed will cut rates by the end of July. This came without supportive or consistent commentary from Fed officials suggesting that rate cuts are imminent –...
Investors are happy with year-to-date returns (the S&P 500 is up 12%), but the market is actually trading at the same level it was 16 months ago. We’ve had big up and down moves, but in the end, we have been trendless. We think valuations have a lot to do with...
Lately, stock markets are rising or falling in substantial part on the prospects of a trade deal with China. Language has turned acrimonious with China saying they would never surrender to foreign pressure. So far, U.S. consumers haven’t felt the full effects of...
As we expected, many companies (about 67%) are beating the bottom line consensus estimates for Q1. The earnings bar was set low by both the companies and analysts coming into earnings season making the forecasts easier to beat. And the prior periods of weak guidance...
