The Yale School of Management runs a “crash confidence” sentiment reading (we’ve never seen this index before). The index measures how worried investors are about a stock market crash in the next six months. The Yale Crash Confidence reading suggests that individual...
Within the S&P 500, we continue to see a huge performance divergence between the largest and smallest stocks. Through last Friday, the cap-weighted S&P 500 was down under just 1% YTD, but the equal-weighted index was still down more than 10%. (A...
We thought we were finished seeing 1000-point moves in the Dow 30. Just when things were settling down, Fed Chairman Powell threw a hand grenade at investors last week, reminding markets that we are not out of the woods yet. His sentiments were not actually...
The stock market is not the economy (and it has never been more true). The markets are experiencing a moment of optimism after suffering the sharpest drop into a bear market in history. The magnitude of the recent price gains seems to be very optimistic...
What did the stock market do last week as the Economic Uncertainty Index hit an all-time high? Rally more than 12% of course! Signs of a plateau in the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus both here and around the world were the primary drivers of last week’s gains...
The coronavirus is a rare ‘black-swan’ event – an event that is unexpected and unknowable. It was the match that ignited the market tinderbox. The richly valued market was priced to perfection with expectations for another good year in 2020. Those expectations came...
