January 2024 Mid-Month Recap

Even though last week’s CPI (consumer price index) came in hotter than expected, we would argue against interpreting results as a notable uptick in inflation. “Supercore” (which strips out a range of very volatile categories) continued to trend weaker.  We were happy...

December 2023 Mid-Month Recap

The S&P 500’s price change so far in Biden’s Presidency is now essentially right at the average gain that we have seen at this point in the four-year Presidential Cycle for the S&P 500 going back to 1928.  We are now at the end of year three of the election...

November 2023 Mid-Month Recap

WE WISH YOU AND YOUR FAMILY A HAPPY THANKSGIVING!     It is hard for investors to gauge the trend of future inflation because of conflicting economic reports and Fed speeches. Some Fed speakers make it sound like the battle against inflation has been won.  Others say...

October 2023 Mid-Month Recap

Corporate earnings season has just started for Q3, but early results are positive. Industry estimates for members of the S&P 500 indicate profits of 1.3% higher than a year earlier – a nice improvement from the second quarter’s decline of 2.6%.  S&P 500...

September 2023 Mid-Month Recap

One of the drawbacks of stronger economic data for the U.S. economy is that interest rates just won’t stop going up and are near recent highs from last fall.  If or when they break these higher levels, the short-term reaction from the stock market will likely be...

August 2023 Mid-Month Recap

The Q2 earnings season is about over. The big story has been the selling we have seen of stocks after they report.  The average stock has fallen 0.71% on its earnings reaction day, the worst in 10 years. The reports themselves were quite good.  Entering earnings...