We got a favorable CPI print for May last week. Core CPI decelerated to the slowest monthly pace in almost three years. Core CPI ex-rent dropped month-over-month and is now below a 1% annual rate of change on both a three month and 12 month basis. This was arguably...
Barron’s Big Money Poll is a must read for us. Large institutional money managers are an important source of demand for equity shares. So the poll gives us insight into what a key group of investors are thinking and doing. They make up part of Wall Street’s...
Although not even close to correction territory, the market has been acting heavier and heavier. Here is part of the reason why: The huge AI theme may be the market’s spinach, but the three-headed monster of higher oil prices, interest rates, and the U.S. dollar have...
The U.S. stock market is overbought in the short-term and a near-term pullback can never be ruled out, especially in mega-cap tech land. Regarding the Fed, the late December 2023 pivot has helped, but this rally is about much more than the Fed (we suspect...
Even though last week’s CPI (consumer price index) came in hotter than expected, we would argue against interpreting results as a notable uptick in inflation. “Supercore” (which strips out a range of very volatile categories) continued to trend weaker. We were happy...
The S&P 500’s price change so far in Biden’s Presidency is now essentially right at the average gain that we have seen at this point in the four-year Presidential Cycle for the S&P 500 going back to 1928. We are now at the end of year three of the election...
