THE LAG SEVEN
The “Magnificent 7” stocks (Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Nvidia and Tesla) led the stock market’s gains in 2023, 2024 and part of 2025. These same stocks as a group are lagging badly in 2026, and put into question whether the S&P 500 can mount a sustainable rally without their participation.
The performance for the Mag 7 stocks is ugly this year. Last week the group (as measured by the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF) dropped 5.9% and is on track to plunge about 12% for the month of June. Some investors consider these “one-decision” stocks akin to the “Nifty-Fifty” in the 1970s. This is dangerous because there is no such thing as a one-decision stock. Investors learned this the hard way in the 1970s when the Nifty-Fifty imploded. It is especially hard for taxable investors to sell/trim these names because many don’t want to pay capital gains taxes on the huge gains these stocks generated earlier in this bull market. We understand. We are in the exact same situation. But we have learned over the years it is not a good idea to get married to stocks.
We are not giving up on our Mag 7 positions. The companies have some of the strongest businesses in our economy with very good managements. They are also some of the leaders on the AI frontier. Although they are leading this month’s “tech-wreck” lower, they have strong prospects and much more attractive valuations now. In fact, Microsoft and Meta now sport valuations lower than the S&P 500 P/E multiple.
The market is broadening which is encouraging. For example, the equal-weighted S&P 500 is testing fresh highs and outperforming the market cap-weighted S&P 500. Last week alone the equal-weighted S&P 500 outperformed the market cap-weighted version by 3.5%. The S&P 500 advance/decline line made a new high last Friday and has been rising even on days when tech stocks have been weak.
Even though the Mag 7 has turned into the Lag 7 leading overall tech stocks lower this month, we think they will rebound and participate with the broader market and push the S&P 500 higher – maybe not in the short-term, but after the current market rotation out of tech goes a little further.
Given that strong earnings are a primary catalyst for this stage of the bull market, it is very important to keep an eye on earnings trends – and margins, too. It may come as a surprise that the forecast for strong earnings is actually improving from earlier projections. For calendar year 2026, S&P 500 earnings are now expected to grow 24.0%, and 16.8% for calendar year 2027 (source: FactSet). Usually earnings grow this fast only coming out of recessions.
Likewise, net profit margins are at 14.2% and near all-time highs. The average net profit margin since 1947 is 10% (sources: FactSet, Bespoke Investment Group).
Since late last year, earnings are growing faster than stock prices so valuations (P/E ratios) on the S&P 500 are falling. Twelve-month forward valuations have dropped to 20.1x from 22.0x. Bears that cite valuations as a key vulnerability of stocks are missing this trend.
Bears that cry we are in a bubble must not be looking at investor sentiment. As a contrarian indicator, we want to see investor sentiment at neutral or bearish levels and never too bullish. Most sentiment surveys today are showing there is still a significant amount of skepticism out there. One survey that shows apprehension is CNN’s Fear and Greed index which is sitting in “Extreme Fear” territory as June comes to an end. Investors are not complacent, far from it. This is not bubble territory.
– – – – –
In spite of our bullish comments on earnings and sentiment, we continue to expect stocks to struggle in the short-term like they have in June. The tech-wreck has to sort itself out with tech stocks retaking a leadership position – or at least participating equally with other sectors. After all, the dominant theme of this bull market is AI which investors are currently ignoring.