We got very good news on the inflation front a couple of weeks ago (CPI and PPI reports) that sent rate hike odds for this week’s Fed meeting down to near 0%. However, over the last week we have seen a sharp pick-up in the odds of a rate hike as oil prices have spiked once again due to Iran flaring back up. The odds have moved up to about 35% (source: Bespoke Investment Group). The market seems to be worried about the new Warsh Fed coming in hot with a hike tomorrow.
Fed Chairman Warsh told congress 10 days ago that he would have “no tolerance” for inflation which has now been above the Fed’s target for more than five years. But our thinking is that the Fed will stand pat for now for two reasons.
First, our economy is solid but not accelerating and may be vulnerable to AI capex spending slowing down. Second, market interest rates are already rising which effectively taps the economic brakes. The two-year Treasury touched its highest level in over a year last week and mortgage rates continue to rise.
We expect Warsh to fully explain his thinking, but not to telegraph future decisions. Inflation remains the key driver of Fed policy.
WHAT WILL IT TAKE FOR STOCKS TO MOVE HIGHER?
The summer doldrums in stocks continue mostly due to a technical unwind of the AI trade. Piling into AI stocks has become a crowded trade and momentum based. Technology and AI stocks have been the life blood of this bull market but now some investors seem concerned about the bull market being able to continue. However, a technical unwind and a fundamental shift are two very different things. One says buy the dip. The other says to move on to the next big thing. In our view, the AI story is evolving, not disappearing.
Bears point to the recent collapse of the bull market’s favorite group – semiconductor stocks. The average semi stock is now in a bear market – down about 25% on average in only six weeks.
Also, the three headed monster is back – interest rates, oil prices and the U.S. dollar are all rising. All three metrics are moving in the wrong direction and are a big headwind for stocks, at least in the short-term.
Bears also point to Wednesday’s Fed meeting and see a policy rate hike. We disagree (see the preceding bullet point for our analysis).
Finally, on the bearish side, some investors think AI spending is putting our economy at risk. Total capex spending (not just AI capex) in our economy now accounts for 2.5-3.0% of GDP, a very high percentage (source: Natixis). Could a reversal in AI capex spending throw our economy into a recession? The bears seem to think so.
Before we depress our readers with negatives, there are reasons to be hopeful including:
- Earnings season is still young but profit reports have been stellar – even better than the lofty expectations coming in. A shockingly high 88% of S&P 500 companies that have reported have beaten earnings estimates. Guidance has been strong as well so far with 11% of S&P 500 companies raising guidance while just 1% have lowered. Specifically, banks have reported outstanding earnings which are supported by a strong consumer and healthy credit quality on loans. An economic dip is unlikely to come from the consumer.
- Over the past couple of months as the market has traded sideways, there has been a general trend higher in the cumulative advance/decline line. This remains a tailwind for now and confirms the market is broadening, a healthy sign for this bull market.
- We would say there is a significant amount of skepticism on the AI trade now. Overall investor sentiment is also skittish. Last week saw AAII bullish sentiment dip to its lowest level of the year, below 30%. The market is definitely climbing a wall of worry.
In conclusion, the intense volatility in the stock market this year is due to a battle royale between the bulls and bears. Both sides feel confident in their position and are fighting to move prices in their direction. As the market continues to trade heavy during these summer months, the bulls need a strong earnings season, a Fed on hold, and an easing in oil prices for the market to start moving higher again.