Recent Commentary
Big Money Poll Of Professional Investors
Since the start of April, 87% of reporting companies have topped EPS forecasts, 75% have exceeded sales forecasts, 16% have raised guidance, and just 2% have lowered forecasts. Overall, S&P 500 earnings growth is currently on pace to total 44% in the first...
A Tough Quarter For Bonds – What To Do Now In Bond Portfolios
Broad participation in the stock market is indicative of a healthy bull market. Currently all eleven sectors are comfortably above their 50-day moving average which is a sign of healthy breadth across the market spectrum. Also, even though every sector is above its...
Blast Off For The U.S. Economy
The pandemic closed casino doors and opened up a much more addictive and accessible form of gambling: online day trading. It is the new drug of choice for generations Y and Z. With zero commissions and easy access to leverage, those young adults are at risk of...
GameStop Fades – We’ve Seen This Movie Before
Throughout the broad uptrend off the March 2020 lows, we have seen different sectors take on leadership roles at various points in time. The broader the base of advancing stocks, the healthier the market. It is not just FANG+ leading the charge. Value stocks have...
The Folly Of Forecasting
Last year’s zeal for risky investments was epitomized by the run-up in cryptocurrencies. For example, bitcoin quadrupled in value. The surge in bitcoin was driven by individual and institutional investors alike, many wading into the market for the first time. Over...
The New Bull Market At Dow 30,000
THE NEW BULL MARKET AT DOW 30,000 It took less than four years for the Dow Jones Industrial Average to climb from 20,000 to 30,000 (Jan 2017 – Nov 2020). This is remarkable given the volatility over this same time period, including a few plunges to the downside. ...
COVID-19 Resurgence
So far in 2020 we have had a pandemic, a recession, an impeachment trial of a president, social unrest, and a contentious presidential campaign. The coming year could be just as eventful. What do institutional money managers think about such an uncertain environment...
Our Annual Q & A
1. What happened in September? Is this a textbook correction or the start of something worse? The pullback in stocks in September is due to a number of reasons: - Tech stocks (including the FANG+ names) had powerful gains in the summer and had to come...
The Market Is Exuberant, But Is It A Bubble?
S&P 500 performance this year has been dominated by the index’s largest components, and the disparity by cap size is great. So far this year, the 50 largest stocks in the S&P 500 are up an average 11.3% YTD through August 28th. The 50 smallest stocks are down...
What’s In Store For Act IV
The five largest stocks in the S&P 500 (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Facebook) have collectively added $1.66 trillion in market cap this year. The other 495 stocks in the index have lost $1.61 trillion in market cap! The average share price increase...