Recent Commentary

WHAT WE LEARNED IN SEPTEMBER Here is a typical day in September:  Oil up, bond yields up, stocks down.  At first glance, the link between higher oil and higher Treasury yields seems obvious, and Fed Chairman Warsh and his committee concluded it had to respond.  So...

WILL HIGHER INTEREST RATES BE A BULL-BUSTER? Long-term bond yields are going up around the globe.  The countries affected have a wide variety of fiscal backdrops and central bank policy rates suggesting the cause is something other than a deficit or a signal from a...

We got very good news on the inflation front a couple of weeks ago (CPI and PPI reports) that sent rate hike odds for this week’s Fed meeting down to near 0%. However, over the last week we have seen a sharp pick-up in the odds of a rate hike as oil prices have spiked...

THE LAG SEVEN   The “Magnificent 7” stocks (Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Nvidia and Tesla) led the stock market’s gains in 2023, 2024 and part of 2025. These same stocks as a group are lagging badly in 2026, and put into question whether...

WARNING SIGNS FOR THE U.S. BULL MARKET On occasion we are told we are overly optimistic investors – maybe even perma-bulls.  We are not perma-bulls but do tend to be very optimistic.  Our position remains that optimistic investors do better than pessimists.  After...

THE RALLY CONTINUES:  ODDS AND ENDS The rally in the S&P 500 continues and is up 13% since March 30 - and over 15% for the Nasdaq 100 (very tech weighted).  This is now the 10th longest bull market in history.  To move into ninth place, this bull only needs to...

EARNINGS DRIVE STOCKS, NOT HEADLINES The drawdown in stocks has been accelerating since our last commentary.  Through yesterday the S&P 500 is down 7.3% YTD and Nasdaq 10.5%.  The average stock in the S&P 500 is down over 20% since the market peak late last...

January was a battle between high quality stocks and lower quality stocks. Lower quality stocks won.  That includes small and micro caps.  (Our view is that the primary small cap stock index, the Russell 2000, is a low-quality index.  About 40% of stocks in the index...

THE INVESTMENT LANDSCAPE FOR 2026 Happy New Year!  The beginning of a new year is as good a time as any to take an inventory of important variables affecting investors and to see what the investment landscape looks like.  The summary below attempts to do just that....

Current retail investor sentiment is mostly mixed so not much to be taken from that. However, one indicator stands out.  Last week the CNN Fear and Greed Index was sitting at one of its most “extreme fear” levels of the year – see below. Source:  CNN Remember that...