Recent Commentary

IS IT ONLY TARIFFS? The blame for the market’s drop lies squarely on the shoulders of tariffs.  During the period when the markets recently rallied from March 14th through March 25th, there was very little “tariff talk.”  When 25% auto tariffs were announced last...

Here are our final thoughts on the just completed earnings season for Q4 ’24. Both the EPS and revenue beat rates were very solid.  Of course, earnings are, in part, a lagging indicator.  They don’t necessarily tell us much about what happens next.  Guidance helps...

One of the risks equity investors face is “headline risk.” Headline risk is being surprised (blindsided) by a bad news headline.  It can be stock specific or relate to the entire market.  Yesterday, investors got a dose of headline risk with news that a Chinese...

The S&P 500 has had a 20%+ return for two years in a row. It has only rallied 20%+ in back-to-back years three other times in history.  Last year’s advance was mostly smooth without a 10% correction along the way.  The ‘Mag 7’ now account for a third of the...

With an YTD gain of 22.1% through yesterday, the S&P 500 is on pace for its second annual 20% gain in a row. Surprisingly, that has only happened two other times:  first, three times in a row from 1954-56, and second, four years in a row from 1995-98.  However,...

China may be our biggest adversary, but the health of their economy and markets are important to the U.S. They are a major trading partner and their markets contribute to overall global stability. Chinese policymakers are finally alarmed enough to shift out of low...

August was a roller coaster for stocks. Moves lower in a roller coaster market can be terrifying, and in the first three trading days of August, investors had to contend with economic data showing what looked like a sharply decelerating economy and the unwind of the...

Just when it seemed mega-caps may never go down and small-caps may never go up again, we have seen a short-term reversal of epic proportions. The tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 is down about 8% while the small-cap Russell 2000 is up almost 10% over the last 13 trading days. ...

This week marks the beginning of earnings season for the second quarter.   S&P 500 companies are expected to report a fourth straight quarter of growth, with profits forecast to rise 8.8% over last year’s second quarter (source:  FactSet). The top 10 companies in...

In the week leading up to Memorial Day weekend, the S&P 500 traded higher 23 out of the prior 30 weeks. There have only been a handful of other periods since WWII where the index had as many positive weeks in a 30-week span. Is the market exhausted after this run,...