Recent Commentary

EARNINGS DRIVE STOCKS, NOT HEADLINES The drawdown in stocks has been accelerating since our last commentary.  Through yesterday the S&P 500 is down 7.3% YTD and Nasdaq 10.5%.  The average stock in the S&P 500 is down over 20% since the market peak late last...

January was a battle between high quality stocks and lower quality stocks. Lower quality stocks won.  That includes small and micro caps.  (Our view is that the primary small cap stock index, the Russell 2000, is a low-quality index.  About 40% of stocks in the index...

THE INVESTMENT LANDSCAPE FOR 2026 Happy New Year!  The beginning of a new year is as good a time as any to take an inventory of important variables affecting investors and to see what the investment landscape looks like.  The summary below attempts to do just that....

Current retail investor sentiment is mostly mixed so not much to be taken from that. However, one indicator stands out.  Last week the CNN Fear and Greed Index was sitting at one of its most “extreme fear” levels of the year – see below. Source:  CNN Remember that...

We are in the heart of earnings season, and it has been an excellent one. About 64% of S&P 500 companies have reported so far.  The latest forecast for the quarter is 10.7% EPS growth, about 5.3% above initial estimates going into the quarter – or about double the...

The U.S. economy is growing above trend. Last Thursday’s third release of Q2 2025 GDP was revised up from 3.29% to 3.84% with upward revisions to consumer spending on services, business fixed investment, and state/local government outlays.  Fears over consumer...

So much for the normal summer doldrums this year. The S&P 500 stock index rose almost 10% in the June – August period, and is now up 9.8% through the end of August. The rally in August was a textbook example of what the bulls want to see.  Cyclicals led the way,...

This earnings season (Q2) is still very young, but beat rates in both revenue and profits are well above average. Yet share-price reactions to earnings reports may be suggesting that the good news is already priced in – at least in the short-term. We are seeing quite...

Since the stock market’s 18.9% pullback during the tariff-tantrum in early April, it has had one of the fastest rebounds on record. The S&P 500 is up more than 10% in Q2 (which includes ugly April).  The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is up about 18% and semis are up more...

Investor sentiment soared in May along with stock prices.  According to a recent AAII survey, the percentage of bullish respondents rose to 37.7% versus 20.9% at the start of May.  Bears dropped from nearly 60% at the start of the month down to 36.7%.  These are big...