Recent Commentary

Q.  If the government shuts down on October 1st, are stocks in for a rough patch? Goldman Sachs recently concluded that U.S. government shutdowns generally have not meaningfully impacted equity returns. In the 14 government shutdowns since 1980, the S&P 500 posted...

Fed Chair Powell's speech last Friday at the Jackson Hole economic policy symposium is key for investors to gauge short and intermediate-term monetary policy.  The bottom line is that easy monetary policy will remain for some time to come. The large number of hawks on...

This quarter's corporate earnings reports have been stellar. With about 40% of S&P 500 companies having now reported, 91% beat analyst expectations, the highest level on record according to Refinitiv.  But that doesn't mean their stock prices rose as a result.  In...

Technology stocks are back. After underperforming the broader market since last October, they sprang to life in June and early July.  Inflation fears have cooled which have sent rates lower, and the economy may be experiencing peak growth before the inevitable...

The booming economy will be a tailwind for corporate revenue while much of the pandemic-era cost cutting remains in place, boosting profit margins.  In fact, the S&P 500 components’ forward net profit margins stand at a record-high 12.8%, according to Yardeni...

Since the start of April, 87% of reporting companies have topped EPS forecasts, 75% have exceeded sales forecasts, 16% have raised guidance, and just 2% have lowered forecasts.  Overall, S&P 500 earnings growth is currently on pace to total 44% in the first quarter,...

Broad participation in the stock market is indicative of a healthy bull market.  Currently all eleven sectors are comfortably above their 50-day moving average which is a sign of healthy breadth across the market spectrum.  Also, even though every sector is above its...

The pandemic closed casino doors and opened up a much more addictive and accessible form of gambling:  online day trading.  It is the new drug of choice for generations Y and Z.  With zero commissions and easy access to leverage, those young adults are at risk of...

Throughout the broad uptrend off the March 2020 lows, we have seen different sectors take on leadership roles at various points in time.  The broader the base of advancing stocks, the healthier the market.  It is not just FANG+ leading the charge.  Value stocks have...

Last year’s zeal for risky investments was epitomized by the run-up in cryptocurrencies.  For example, bitcoin quadrupled in value.  The surge in bitcoin was driven by individual and institutional investors alike, many wading into the market for the first time. Over...