Recent Commentary

June saw a huge increase in bullish sentiment that carried through in July. It has been a complete turnaround since the continuously pessimistic readings throughout 2022.  The about-face has been so large that an investor has to ask:  Are we seeing an increase in...

While the consumer price index (CPI) has fallen from 9% to 4% year-over-year, the producer price index (PPI) has been more volatile on both the upside and subsequent fall. (The CPI measures inflation to consumers or end-users.  The PPI measures wholesale price...

We mentioned in our May commentary that the main theme for the next bull market could very well be Artificial Intelligence (AI).   Although fundamentals and valuation metrics lead us to believe we are not yet in a new bull market, no one has told investors in AI...

Corporate earnings season for Q1 is now about halfway completed. So far, modest expectations have been exceeded.  Coming in, investors expected a 6.3% drop in profits.  Now a 4.2% decline is expected.  Here are year-over-year earnings forecasts for the rest of 2023...

The S&P 500 had a solid month in March; up 3.5%.  But not everything rallied in March.  Small caps and mid-caps were down 3-5%.  Only 3 of 11 equity sectors are up March YTD.  And high quality stocks have been lagging all year as shown by the difference in...

THE WAR AGAINST INFLATION HITS A SPEED BUMP Six weeks ago we wrote in the January mid-month commentary that the Fed was winning the war against inflation.  If we look at their progress since last year’s peak inflation that is still true.  But January hit a snag. ...

An old adage on Wall Street is “don’t fight the Fed.”   Another one is “don’t fight the tape.”  The second rule seems to be a winning out in January.  Bulls and bears can argue about fundamentals (they always do) but both would agree that market technicals are turning...

  Equity investors do not have a lot to like, but that is always the case closer to market bottoms than tops. That doesn’t mean we have to rally in 2023, but just because positives are limited doesn’t mean we have to keep going lower either. The end of a bear...

The stock market has been strong since early October.  The S&P 500 rallied 6.5% in October and is up 2.5% so far in November (through November 28th).  Although this is likely a bear market rally, something has changed in investors’ minds.  In the short term,...

After the market and sentiment hit a low on September 30, stocks had a fabulous October. The Dow surged 14.0% in October with the S&P 500 up 8.0%.  NASDAQ trailed but was up 3.9%.  It was the best month for the Dow since January 1976. The most impressive part of...