Recent Commentary

THE WAR AGAINST INFLATION HITS A SPEED BUMP Six weeks ago we wrote in the January mid-month commentary that the Fed was winning the war against inflation.  If we look at their progress since last year’s peak inflation that is still true.  But January hit a snag. ...

An old adage on Wall Street is “don’t fight the Fed.”   Another one is “don’t fight the tape.”  The second rule seems to be a winning out in January.  Bulls and bears can argue about fundamentals (they always do) but both would agree that market technicals are turning...

  Equity investors do not have a lot to like, but that is always the case closer to market bottoms than tops. That doesn’t mean we have to rally in 2023, but just because positives are limited doesn’t mean we have to keep going lower either. The end of a bear...

The stock market has been strong since early October.  The S&P 500 rallied 6.5% in October and is up 2.5% so far in November (through November 28th).  Although this is likely a bear market rally, something has changed in investors’ minds.  In the short term,...

After the market and sentiment hit a low on September 30, stocks had a fabulous October. The Dow surged 14.0% in October with the S&P 500 up 8.0%.  NASDAQ trailed but was up 3.9%.  It was the best month for the Dow since January 1976. The most impressive part of...

  Here is our annual Q and A of questions most asked by clients: Q             When will the bear market in stocks end? A             It will be hard to know precisely when the bear market ends.  Unfortunately, they don’t ring a bell when the coast is clear. A...

In the second quarter, the decline in residential investment subtracted 0.7% from real GDP growth. The third quarter has started on a sour note:  July housing starts dropped nearly 20% from their cyclical peak in April. Home builder sentiment for August plunged to its...

More often than not, when the analysts expectations bar is set low for earnings season (like now), the S&P 500 rallies. Conversely, when the bar is set high heading into earnings season, the markets performance has been uneven. Coming into this earnings season,...

Let’s start Q3 on a positive note.  If there has ever been a time that the market was “due” to rally, it is in the months ahead.  Historical gains are impressive after a two-quarter 20% drop like we just experienced.  Following a correction like this, the market has...

  FOOLS RUSH IN?  OR A MARKET BOTTOM? There is no way to know yet if the recent rally in stocks marks a turning point for the market.  Was it “smart money” buying or a “fools rush in” kind of rally?  We will not let a market bounce blind us to the underlying...