October 2026 Market Commentary

WHAT WE LEARNED IN SEPTEMBER Here is a typical day in September:  Oil up, bond yields up, stocks down.  At first glance, the link between higher oil and higher Treasury yields seems obvious, and Fed Chairman Warsh and his committee concluded it had to respond.  So...

August 2026 Market Commentary

We got very good news on the inflation front a couple of weeks ago (CPI and PPI reports) that sent rate hike odds for this week’s Fed meeting down to near 0%. However, over the last week we have seen a sharp pick-up in the odds of a rate hike as oil prices have spiked...

July 2026 Market Commentary

THE LAG SEVEN   The “Magnificent 7” stocks (Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Nvidia and Tesla) led the stock market’s gains in 2023, 2024 and part of 2025. These same stocks as a group are lagging badly in 2026, and put into question whether...

June 2026 Market Commentary

WARNING SIGNS FOR THE U.S. BULL MARKET On occasion we are told we are overly optimistic investors – maybe even perma-bulls.  We are not perma-bulls but do tend to be very optimistic.  Our position remains that optimistic investors do better than pessimists.  After...

May 2026 Market Commentary

THE RALLY CONTINUES:  ODDS AND ENDS The rally in the S&P 500 continues and is up 13% since March 30 – and over 15% for the Nasdaq 100 (very tech weighted).  This is now the 10th longest bull market in history.  To move into ninth place, this bull only needs...