October 2026 Market Commentary

WHAT WE LEARNED IN SEPTEMBER Here is a typical day in September:  Oil up, bond yields up, stocks down.  At first glance, the link between higher oil and higher Treasury yields seems obvious, and Fed Chairman Warsh and his committee concluded it had to respond.  So...

September 2026 Mid-Month Recap

Both stock prices and market breadth peaked a month ago. It has been a tough slog since.  The broader market has been trailing mega-caps which are holding up nicely.  The 10-day advance/decline line drop has been dramatic as well as other breadth measures. The culprit...

August 2026 Mid-Month Recap

A few final comments on this earnings season: This week’s Walmart’s earnings report marks the unofficial end to the season.  It was a season for the record books.  For the second quarter, S&P 500 companies are reporting year-over-year growth in earnings of 50%...

August 2026 Market Commentary

We got very good news on the inflation front a couple of weeks ago (CPI and PPI reports) that sent rate hike odds for this week’s Fed meeting down to near 0%. However, over the last week we have seen a sharp pick-up in the odds of a rate hike as oil prices have spiked...