Recent Commentary

Can investors look back at SARS in 2003 and use that market behavior to analyze how today’s markets might be impacted by the coronavirus?  Probably not.  Both the economic and market conditions were much different in 2003 than they are now.  In 2003 we were coming out...

  Last week investors were reminded of risk – geopolitical risk to be specific.  Stocks quickly sold off after tension between the U.S. and Iran escalated.  But we don’t remember when there wasn’t ‘tension’ in the Mideast.  Individual risks such as this tend not to be...

Barron’s recent fall 2019 Big Money Poll reported that only 27% of money managers are bullish on the stock market for the next 12 months, down from 46% in the spring survey and 56% a year ago.  The latest reading is the lowest percentage of bulls in over 20 years. A...

Q.  Will the impeachment inquiry (and possible impeachment) of President Trump put a lid on stock prices, or cause share prices to fall? A.  The impact of impeachment on the markets is not clear.  From the beginning of Richard Nixon's impeachment inquiry to his...

  Is the growing “consensus” that’s calling for recession correct?  Not in our view.  The leading/coincident indicator ratio tends to plunge consistently for long periods of time in the lead-up to recessions, unlike the three instances of sideways movement we have...

To date, about one-half of companies in the S&P 500 have reported Q2 earnings.  Seventy-seven percent of companies have reported a positive EPS surprise, a very strong showing.  The overall earnings decline is expected to be 2.6% for the quarter.  For CY 2019,...

The current economic expansion is celebrating its 10th birthday this month — the longest on record.  What accounts for its longevity?  In our view, the lack of an economic boom.  No boom, no bust.  The next recession may be the most widely anticipated of all time. ...

Investors are happy with year-to-date returns (the S&P 500 is up 12%), but the market is actually trading at the same level it was 16 months ago.  We’ve had big up and down moves, but in the end, we have been trendless.  We think valuations have a lot to do with that...

As we expected, many companies (about 67%) are beating the bottom line consensus estimates for Q1. The earnings bar was set low by both the companies and analysts coming into earnings season making the forecasts easier to beat. And the prior periods of weak guidance...