Recent Commentary

Red October

Red October

Q & A It seems timely this is the month for our annual Q&A.  Here are the most frequently asked questions by clients and other professionals:   What is causing the current stock market correction?   Concerns seem to be piling on making this a deep pull back. The S&P...

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There’s More Life Left in This Bull Market

There’s More Life Left in This Bull Market

Are we due for a post-election pop? If history repeats, 2019 may be a very profitable year. Although stock prices typically drop about 3% in the six months prior to a (first term) mid-term election going back to WWII, prices rise on average 19% in the 12 months after...

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Show Us the Money

Show Us the Money

Although we were disappointed stock prices didn’t react to spectacular first­quarter earnings (+25%), we remain very interested in what corporations are doing with the extra cash and how this might eventually boost share prices. Share repurchases. First...

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Fear, Greed, and Valuations: An Update

Fear, Greed, and Valuations: An Update

Earnings reports for Q1 have been nothing short of spectacular (helped by the recent reduction in corporate income tax rates). Reported earnings growth to date is 23.2% with revenue growth of 8.4% (source: FactSet). Net profit margins are 11.1%, a post­financial...

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The Three Types of Corrections Investors Face

The Three Types of Corrections Investors Face

The corporate earnings growth rate (year/year) for Q4, 2017 was a spectacular 15.2%, the highest quarterly growth rate reported in over six years. It marked the third time in the past four quarters earnings growth was in double digits. Revenues grew an impressive 7.9%...

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The Sweet Smell of Large Caps

The Sweet Smell of Large Caps

The unfolding 2018 market narrative trumpets the expectation of strong corporate profits ahead. But first, let’s take a look at how fourth quarter 2017 reports are shaping up so far. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to grow 11.2% (ex­financial companies). We are...

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