Recent Commentary

Fourth Quarter Recap:  What a difference a quarter can make. The S&P 500 was up 9% through September but then declined 14% in Q4 to end (6.2)% for the year. Many other U.S. stock market measures were down more. And volatility raged throughout the quarter. According to...

One of the main reasons for the recent October/November correction in stock prices is the escalating trade war between China and the U.S. So investors cheered when progress was made last Saturday night at the G20 Summit in Argentina between President Trump and Chinese...

Q & A It seems timely this is the month for our annual Q&A.  Here are the most frequently asked questions by clients and other professionals:   What is causing the current stock market correction?   Concerns seem to be piling on making this a deep pull back. The S&P...

Capital Alpha Partners is a well-respected investment research firm that advises investors on how politics will affect their portfolios. Their insights can be valuable when reviewing investment strategy both before and after key elections. Their expert opinion places...

The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high last Friday. The new high does not come with the euphoria we saw in January. For example, the Investor’s Intelligence survey is reporting a 3:1 bull-bear spread, far short of the 5:1 bull-bear spread in January. The AAII...

Are we due for a post-election pop? If history repeats, 2019 may be a very profitable year. Although stock prices typically drop about 3% in the six months prior to a (first term) mid-term election going back to WWII, prices rise on average 19% in the 12 months after...

The rate of earnings growth likely peaked in Q1 (+25%) with growth for all of 2018 forecast at 19.8%. The 2019 forecast will see a deceleration to a still healthy 10.0% (resulting from operating earnings, not the federal tax overhaul - Source: FactSet). In recent time...

Although we were disappointed stock prices didn’t react to spectacular first­quarter earnings (+25%), we remain very interested in what corporations are doing with the extra cash and how this might eventually boost share prices. Share repurchases. First...

Earnings reports for Q1 have been nothing short of spectacular (helped by the recent reduction in corporate income tax rates). Reported earnings growth to date is 23.2% with revenue growth of 8.4% (source: FactSet). Net profit margins are 11.1%, a post­financial...

Earnings season starts in earnest next week. Can the expected surge in earnings stabilize the market and provide a base for the next rally phase? The big question is whether the good earnings forecasts are already discounted in share prices. We won’t know...