Recent Commentary

January 2022 Market Commentary

  There were a record number of new issues in 2021, but only 22% of IPOs were profitable. Yet people still pour money into them.  Investors hope to find the next Apple, Microsoft, or Tesla, but the odds are stacked against them.  Especially since few investors can buy...

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December 2021 Market Commentary

It is still very early to say much definitive about the Omicron variant of COVID. We do know that it has spread beyond the origin, it has a significant number of mutations on the spike protein of the virus, and has relatively high transmissibility.  Testing by vaccine...

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November 2021 Market Commentary

Earnings results are deteriorating as earnings season rolls on. Beat rates are less than the last two quarters but still remain above average.  Both revenue and EPS misses are being punished.  Individual stocks have been down 3.2% on average for a miss on earnings...

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October 2021 Market Commentary

Q.  If the government shuts down on October 1st, are stocks in for a rough patch? Goldman Sachs recently concluded that U.S. government shutdowns generally have not meaningfully impacted equity returns. In the 14 government shutdowns since 1980, the S&P 500 posted...

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Day Trading Versus Buy and Hold

This quarter's corporate earnings reports have been stellar. With about 40% of S&P 500 companies having now reported, 91% beat analyst expectations, the highest level on record according to Refinitiv.  But that doesn't mean their stock prices rose as a result.  In...

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Another Crash In Bitcoin

The booming economy will be a tailwind for corporate revenue while much of the pandemic-era cost cutting remains in place, boosting profit margins.  In fact, the S&P 500 components’ forward net profit margins stand at a record-high 12.8%, according to Yardeni...

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Big Money Poll Of Professional Investors

Since the start of April, 87% of reporting companies have topped EPS forecasts, 75% have exceeded sales forecasts, 16% have raised guidance, and just 2% have lowered forecasts.  Overall, S&P 500 earnings growth is currently on pace to total 44% in the first quarter,...

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