Recent Commentary

Another Crash In Bitcoin

The booming economy will be a tailwind for corporate revenue while much of the pandemic-era cost cutting remains in place, boosting profit margins.  In fact, the S&P 500 components’ forward net profit margins stand at a record-high 12.8%, according to Yardeni...

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Big Money Poll Of Professional Investors

Since the start of April, 87% of reporting companies have topped EPS forecasts, 75% have exceeded sales forecasts, 16% have raised guidance, and just 2% have lowered forecasts.  Overall, S&P 500 earnings growth is currently on pace to total 44% in the first quarter,...

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Blast Off For The U.S. Economy

The pandemic closed casino doors and opened up a much more addictive and accessible form of gambling:  online day trading.  It is the new drug of choice for generations Y and Z.  With zero commissions and easy access to leverage, those young adults are at risk of...

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The Folly Of Forecasting

Last year’s zeal for risky investments was epitomized by the run-up in cryptocurrencies.  For example, bitcoin quadrupled in value.  The surge in bitcoin was driven by individual and institutional investors alike, many wading into the market for the first time. Over...

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The New Bull Market At Dow 30,000

THE NEW BULL MARKET AT DOW 30,000 It took less than four years for the Dow Jones Industrial Average to climb from 20,000 to 30,000 (Jan 2017 – Nov 2020).  This is remarkable given the volatility over this same time period, including a few plunges to the downside.  ...

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COVID-19 Resurgence

So far in 2020 we have had a pandemic, a recession, an impeachment trial of a president, social unrest, and a contentious presidential campaign.  The coming year could be just as eventful.  What do institutional money managers think about such an uncertain environment...

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Our Annual Q & A

1.  What happened in September? Is this a textbook correction or the start of something worse?  The pullback in stocks in September is due to a number of reasons: -              Tech stocks (including the FANG+ names) had powerful gains in the summer and had to come...

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