Recent Commentary

Our 2020 Playbook

  Last week investors were reminded of risk – geopolitical risk to be specific.  Stocks quickly sold off after tension between the U.S. and Iran escalated.  But we don’t remember when there wasn’t ‘tension’ in the Mideast.  Individual risks such as this tend not to be...

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The Bond Market Takes Center Stage

Barron’s recent fall 2019 Big Money Poll reported that only 27% of money managers are bullish on the stock market for the next 12 months, down from 46% in the spring survey and 56% a year ago.  The latest reading is the lowest percentage of bulls in over 20 years. A...

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Our Annual Q And A

Q.  Will the impeachment inquiry (and possible impeachment) of President Trump put a lid on stock prices, or cause share prices to fall? A.  The impact of impeachment on the markets is not clear.  From the beginning of Richard Nixon's impeachment inquiry to his...

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The Bond Market Takes Center Stage

  Is the growing “consensus” that’s calling for recession correct?  Not in our view.  The leading/coincident indicator ratio tends to plunge consistently for long periods of time in the lead-up to recessions, unlike the three instances of sideways movement we have...

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Why Investors Should Care About Rate Cuts

To date, about one-half of companies in the S&P 500 have reported Q2 earnings.  Seventy-seven percent of companies have reported a positive EPS surprise, a very strong showing.  The overall earnings decline is expected to be 2.6% for the quarter.  For CY 2019,...

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P/E Ratios and Bull Markets

The current economic expansion is celebrating its 10th birthday this month — the longest on record.  What accounts for its longevity?  In our view, the lack of an economic boom.  No boom, no bust.  The next recession may be the most widely anticipated of all time. ...

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The Bull Market Powers Higher

As we expected, many companies (about 67%) are beating the bottom line consensus estimates for Q1. The earnings bar was set low by both the companies and analysts coming into earnings season making the forecasts easier to beat. And the prior periods of weak guidance...

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