Market technicians view “golden crosses” as a bullish signal. A golden cross occurs when a stock’s (or an index’s) 50-day moving average crosses up through the 200-day moving average as both are rising. Many stocks have golden crosses now because of steep price gains since the low in early April. The three major indexes (S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Dow Jones Industrial Average) are also showing golden crosses. See the 12-month graphs below for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Notice the shaded area circled in red which shows the golden crosses:
S&P 500 – LAST 12 MONTHS
NASDAQ – LAST 12 MONTHS
Source: Bespoke Investment Group
One caveat: golden crosses may not be nearly as positive of an indicator for individual stocks that some technicians view them as. However, for major equity indexes, it has been a bullish signal for the months and year ahead. Could this momentum indicator carry us through the usual summer doldrums?
TARIFFS ARE BACK IN THE NEWS
Last week and over the weekend President Trump announced a new wave of tariffs, even targeting key U.S. trading partners, with most tariffs set to take effect on August 1st. The President said this start date will not be extended. We won’t list the amount of tariffs by country, but they are steep. The stock market sold off on the news late last week, but the S&P 500 only declined (0.3) % – a far cry compared to market action after “Liberation Day” in early April.
In short, announced tariff burdens are rising. But the market appears to be mostly ignoring them on the assumption they will either be relaxed or rolled back all together. The key takeaway here is that the market is pricing very low odds of enactment for the current wave of tariffs.
In other news, this morning’s CPI print was in line with expectations. Fed Chairman Powell keeps waiting for inflation from tariffs to make its way into official data, but it hasn’t – at least not yet. In other inflation news, oil and gas prices have been contained, but precious metals and copper have surged.
Also, Q2 earnings results and guidance going forward will start to be announced this week and will be an important tell. Expectations for Q2 corporate earnings growth are 4.8%. Last earnings season, sentiment was extremely negative and companies easily exceeded the low bar. This earnings season sentiment isn’t as negative and stocks are at record highs, meaning that the bar is higher than it was last quarter.
Back to tariffs: maybe ongoing tariff news will be the reason we have the usual summer doldrums. And seasonally, the three-month period starting in mid-July is the weakest three month period all year. The market may take a breather here – unless Q2 earnings results really surprise to the upside like Q1 numbers did.