August 2025 Market Commentary

This earnings season (Q2) is still very young, but beat rates in both revenue and profits are well above average. Yet share-price reactions to earnings reports may be suggesting that the good news is already priced in – at least in the short-term. We are seeing quite...

July 2025 Market Commentary

Since the stock market’s 18.9% pullback during the tariff-tantrum in early April, it has had one of the fastest rebounds on record. The S&P 500 is up more than 10% in Q2 (which includes ugly April).  The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is up about 18% and semis are up more...

June 2025 Market Commentary

Investor sentiment soared in May along with stock prices.  According to a recent AAII survey, the percentage of bullish respondents rose to 37.7% versus 20.9% at the start of May.  Bears dropped from nearly 60% at the start of the month down to 36.7%.  These are big...

May 2025 Market Commentary

Earnings season has been strong. The results could have sparked more bearishness, but instead have generally been a sigh of relief.  Of the companies that have reported so far, an above-average 73% beat earnings estimates, and 63% beat sales estimates.  In terms of...

April 2025 Market Commentary

IS IT ONLY TARIFFS? The blame for the market’s drop lies squarely on the shoulders of tariffs.  During the period when the markets recently rallied from March 14th through March 25th, there was very little “tariff talk.”  When 25% auto tariffs were announced last...